Hyperscalers: AI Investment Will Outpace Near-Term Earnings

Morningstar · Moritz Steinbauer · 2026-11-06 11:00 UTC

The largest technology companies face increased downside risk, but their credit profiles are less vulnerable than those of smaller players in the AI buildout.

The largest technology companies face increased downside risk, but their credit profiles are less vulnerable than those of smaller players in the AI buildout.

Investments in artificial intelligence will far outpace earnings growth through 2028 at four of the largest technology companies. This prospect exposes the so-called hyperscalers—Amazon AMZN, Meta Platforms META, Google parent company Alphabet GOOG/GOOGL, and Microsoft MSFT—to the risk that, in a downside scenario where returns on AI spending lag expectations, their leverage and cash generation could weaken. Still, the very large size and strong starting position of the hyperscalers leaves their credit profiles less vulnerable than those of smaller, more concentrated participants in the AI buildout.

Hyperscalers, Hyper-Capex

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