New Zealand needs an independent watchdog to cost election promises - Oliver Hartwich

New Zealand Herald · Dr Oliver Hartwich · 2026-11-01 02:00 UTC

OPINION: An independent watchdog could show voters the 40-year cost of promises.

Treasury’s long-term outlook has net debt reaching 200% of GDP by 2065 if nothing changes, driven mainly by the rising cost of pensions and health care for an older population.

Holding debt steady through tax alone would mean lifting the average tax on wages and salaries from 21% to 32%.

Both Labour and New Zealand First flatly refuse to touch the pension age. Meanwhile, National’s long-standing policy would not start lifting it to 67 until 2044, and its leaders now say even that needs a political consensus nobody can find. By then, children starting school next year will have left university.

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