How Russia Sees the World Now: The Kremlin’s New Mental Map Is Changing the War in Ukraine—and the Confrontation With the West

Foreign Affairs · Dmitry Adamsky · 2026-10-21 08:00 UTC

Dmitry Adamsky, an expert on Russian security and Russian nuclear deterrence strategy at Harvard and Reichman Universities, examines a large-scale shift in Russia’s strategic thinking over the past year, centered around the view that Europe, rather than the United States, is now Russia’s primary geopolitical rival and adversary, and looking at the consequences of this shift for US efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

In 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale war in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s strategic thinking was shaped around several core ideas. It viewed the United States as its principal geopolitical rival, an adversary that had encouraged Kyiv to impose strategic defeat on Moscow. It considered Europe and NATO largely as an extension of American power. And it saw nuclear muscle flexing as efficient means to exert coercive pressure.

Today, after nearly five years of war, and 22 months of the second Trump administration, the mental map guiding Russian strategy has changed. First, Russia now sees Europe, instead of the United States, as

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