US blue wave renews prospect of Canada tariff relief
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The Democrats' sweep of the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections on 3 November has raised market participants' expectations of a trade deal with Canada that could include tariff relief on aluminum imports.
The Democrats' sweep of the US House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections on 3 November has raised market participants' expectations of a trade deal with Canada that could include tariff relief on aluminum imports.
A carve-out for top primary aluminum supplier Canada could trigger a reduction in the Midwest premium, which has reached unprecedented heights as a result of tariffs and caused price disruptions in upstream and downstream markets.
The Midwest premium, which encompasses all associated costs to deliver primary aluminum into the US Midwest, surged by 406pc from the start of 2025 to an all-time high of $1.19/lb in late May of this year before sliding back to $1.12/lb as of 4 November, according to Argus data. While ex-China supply risks from the US-Iran war accelerated the increase, tariffs have been the driving factor.
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