Don’t Go Backward on China Policy: The Folly of a Hawkish Restoration
Foreign Affairs · Ali Wyne and Ryan Hass ·
The folly of a hawkish restoration.
Nearly halfway through his second term in office, U.S. President Donald Trump has undercut both the United States’ capacity to protect its interests related to China and its role as a provider of regional security in Asia. His undisciplined approach to dealing with Beijing, in which he has focused on building warm personal ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and discounted or ignored long-standing sources of tension between the two countries, has reduced Washington’s leverage to shape the relationship. At the same time, Trump’s sustained attacks on allies and partners have driven them to hedge against the United States and strengthen their ties with China. Beijing, in turn, has successfully cast itself as a steady counterweight to an erratic Washington: in 25 of 36 countries that the Pew Research Center surveyed in the spring of 2026—among them Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and Mexico—more respondents had a favorable view of China than of the United States.
Given the failures of Trump’s second-term strategy, many Democrats and even moderate Republicans may try to strike more hawkish postures on China after the midterm elections and during the 2028 presidential campaign. This temptation is understandable: there is a strong desire to provide a contrast to a flailing approach and correct what Trump has gotten wrong. But succumbing to it would be dangerous. If Congress and future presidential candidates reflexively adopt a more aggressive stance toward China, they could both undercut a future administration’s capacity to preserve vital diplomatic space with Beijing and further disquiet allies and partners that do not want to be trapped in a new twilight struggle. Overcorrecting Trump’s China policy would also be unlikely to help candidates get elected or boost their public profile in the run-up to 2028. Recent polling shows that only a small share of Americans in seven battleground states view China as an enemy or consider it to be one of the top threats to U.S. security.
The goal for the next Congress and, eventually, Trump’s successor, should be to prioritize steady competence over performative toughness in dealing with China. Political point scoring and wistful nostalgia for strategies that discount Beijing’s mounting power, and growing domestic support in the United States for great-power calm, would compound Trump’s mistakes rather than mitigate them. A smarter, more coherent China policy—one rooted in disciplined competition with Beijing, patient efforts to build goodwill with anxious allies and partners, and vigorous efforts to refresh the domestic sources of U.S. strength—can make life safer, healthier, and more affordable for Americans.
Read the full story at Foreign Affairs · All coverage of this story