CEE FX: CNB dovish shift and NBP hawkish turn – ING

FXStreet · FXStreet Insights Team · 2026-11-06 14:12 UTC

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says the Czech National Bank’s dovish signal contrasts with expectations for at least two more rate hikes and a hawkish repricing. He sees EUR/CZK trading in a 24.350–24.400 range, supported by seasonal koruna strength despite renewed upward pressure.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says the Czech National Bank’s dovish signal contrasts with expectations for at least two more rate hikes and a hawkish repricing. He sees EUR/CZK trading in a 24.350–24.400 range, supported by seasonal koruna strength despite renewed upward pressure. In Poland, the National Bank of Poland’s more hawkish stance may support the zloty, although global risk aversion remains the key driver of CEE currencies.

CNB cautious, NBP turns more hawkish

"The market interprets this as a dovish signal, suggesting the CNB is unwilling to hike rates further unless the inflation situation deteriorates significantly. For the first time since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, the CNB’s forecast aligns closely with market pricing, with the PRIBOR rate peaking at around 4.55%. However, inflation is expected to worsen over the remainder of the year, approaching 3% and nearing 4% in 27Q1."

Read the full story at FXStreet · All coverage of this story