JPMorgan sees global oil market return to surplus

Oil & Gas Journal · Conglin Xu · 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC

JPMorgan said the global oil market returned to surplus in September as Middle East exports recovered and demand softened, diverging from the IEA's forecast for continued deficits...

The global oil market returned to surplus in September as recovering Middle Eastern exports and weaker demand eased supply pressures stemming from the Iran war, according to JPMorgan estimates. The assessment contrasts with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) October outlook, which projected continued supply deficits through yearend.

JPMorgan estimated that global oil supply exceeded demand by 1.1 million b/d in September, with the surplus widening to 1.4 million b/d in October. By comparison, IEA's Oct. 14 Oil Market Report estimated a supply deficit of about 790,000 b/d in September, a difference of nearly 1.9 million b/d between the two assessments.

IEA's estimates indicated continued inventory depletion. Global observed oil stocks declined by about 10 million bbl in September, as a 113 million bbl draw in onshore inventories more than offset a 103 million bbl increase in oil on water. At the end of September, global observed inventories were 509 million bbl below end-February levels.

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