BofA’s Hartnett sets three conditions for a return to risk-taking

Investing.com · Vahid Karaahmetovic · 2026-11-06 12:39 UTC

BofA’s Hartnett sets three conditions for a return to risk-taking

Investing.com -- Investors should stay risk-off until three conditions are met to reverse the tightening of financial conditions, Bank of America’s top investment strategist Michael Hartnett says, including the end of the central banks’ rate-hiking cycle, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling below 4.5%, and oil dropping below $80 a barrel.

If November inflation and payrolls data are weak, Hartnett argues December hikes from the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan could be the last. A year-end rally in risk assets would then start around Thanksgiving.

The strategists said the midterms ended one of the last bull convictions, that there would be no Democratic sweep. They said the result signals a "shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism," with taxes and regulation set to rise.

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