How Accurate Were Kalshi and Polymarket at Picking Midterm Winners?

The New York Times · Stuart A. Thompson · 2026-11-06 10:04 UTC

The midterm elections were a referendum on the predictive power of election forecasts.

How Accurate Were Prediction Markets at Picking Midterm Winners?

Heading into Election Day, Republicans appeared likely to hold on to South Carolina’s Senate seat. Senator Darline Graham was running to succeed her older brother, the late Senator Lindsey Graham, for a full term, and she had received President Trump’s endorsement.

Prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, tended to agree. On the morning of Nov. 3, online bettors had given Ms. Graham a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the race, fueled by more than $27 million in betting activity.

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