As high oil prices curb demand, fresh signs of glut appear
Zawya · Seher Dareen, Anushree Mukherjee ·
JP Morgan sees global oil surplus at 1.4mln bpd in October
LONDON - The global oil market is showing signs of a return to excess supply as demand drops due to high prices, analysts and traders said, despite the lack of a resolution to the Iran war, which has disrupted exports from the Middle East since March.
The market was widely expected at the start of 2026 to be in a surplus, but the outbreak of the Iran war in late February led to what the International Energy Agency called the world's biggest ever supply disruption and cut Middle East exports, overturning the surplus projections.
Banks and government forecasters have cut global oil demand forecasts in 2026 in part due to high prices. As supplies recover, weak demand is helping the market to balance.