The New Energy Stalemate in Ukraine: Why Russia’s Escalating Attacks Are Unlikely to End the War
Foreign Affairs · Tatiana Mitrova and Sergey Vakulenko ·
Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and former energy scholar at Moscow’s Russian Academy of Sciences, and Sergey Vakulenko, an oil and gas expert at Carnegie’s Russia Eurasia Center, argue that Russia and Ukraine are locked in an energy war that has become an adaptation spiral, despite growing human and economic costs and despite current US pressure on Ukraine. They observe Ukraine’s remarkable ability to withstand Russian strikes, while questioning claims that long-range Ukrainian strikes will be able to achieve game-changing damage on Russia. Ukraine and Russia have transformed the role of energy warfare in modern conflict, drawing on low costs drones but also new forms of technological resilience that are likely to make wars longer and more dangerous.
In the days since U.S. President Donald Trump’s highly public falling out with Ukraine and growing rapprochement with Russia, Kyiv’s prospects going into the fifth winter of war look grim. The Trump administration has demanded that Ukraine suspend its attacks on Russian refineries, which have been one of Ukraine’s most effective means of putting pressure on Moscow. Meanwhile, Kyiv faces dangerous gaps in its air defenses against Russia’s jet-powered drones and stepped-up use of ballistic missiles. And Trump has entered into a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin that temporarily waives U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel exports, offering Moscow a diplomatic win. Trump’s envoys have also proposed that Europe increase purchases of Russian gas as part of an effort to gain the Kremlin’s support for peace—further complicating the efforts of Ukraine and its remaining allies to squeeze Russia.
Yet missing from this bleak picture are the ways that Ukraine has already adapted to escalating attacks. Kyiv has developed innovative strategies to mitigate the impact of Russian energy strikes and keep its grid running, even amid intense bombardment. And despite the new U.S. pressure, Ukraine has continued to launch powerful drone strikes against Russia’s energy infrastructure, including successful mid-October attacks on an oil terminal in St. Petersburg and industrial gas processing plants as far away as Surgut and the Novy Urengoy, 1,800 miles from the Ukrainian border. Overall, since mid-2025, Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced Russian refinery throughput by roughly 30 percent; they have also eroded a significant share of Moscow’s excess refining capacity, resulting in a gasoline shortfall of about ten percent.
Still, this is only one part of a rapidly evolving energy war. Moscow has developed its own ways to limit the effects of Ukrainian strikes. And it has intensified its assault on Ukrainian infrastructure, including an October 19 barrage that damaged more than ten energy facilities. DiXi Group, a Ukrainian think tank, has estimated that Russia launched 12,800 missiles and drones at Ukrainian energy facilities in 2025 and early 2026, compared with just 2,800 during the first three years of the war combined. Although these figures count launches rather than successful strikes, they show how massive and relentless the Russian campaign has become.
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