Why global debt catastrophe fears are wrong

The National · Ken Fisher · 2026-11-06 04:00 UTC

Since 2010, the riskier kind of debt fell in relative size while the less risky kind grew

Debt spirals, doom loops and default danger – pundits fret all of these and more as US federal debt tops $40 trillion. They see profligate politicians and climbing long-term interest rates soon rendering the world’s largest economy penniless. Europe and Japan are not much better off, they claim.

The facts argue otherwise, however. Measured correctly, global debt is down over the last decade. Yes, down. That does not mean I crave more government debt. I’d prefer less. Nor does it mean politicians and bureaucrats spend wisely. They don’t. They spend foolishly compared to ordinary people and businesses. But the current debt phobia is misplaced.

Debt worriers often spotlight whatever debt category seems most outrageous. Sometimes they harp on about credit card debt. Other times it is municipal bonds. Sometimes it is a business sector, like private credit. Often it is the federal debt – like now. Their cries crescendo when debt hits big round numbers. Hence the eruption this summer when US federal debt breached the $40 trillion mark.

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