View: How the Middle East and North Africa are navigating a turbulent era
Semafor · Jihad Azour ·
Policy reforms and financial buffers underpinned resilience, but prolonged conflict will force harder choices.
Jihad’s view
Resilience or luck? At the recent IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, this question was on every policymaker’s mind. There were good reasons for relief: despite a succession of shocks, the global economy had held up better than many feared. So too has the Middle East and North Africa.
When hostilities erupted in the Gulf at the end of February, provoking the largest oil and energy shock in history, many feared the region’s economies would be overwhelmed: Shipping lanes would close, energy prices would soar, and the more vulnerable economies would struggle to stay afloat. Eight months later, those worst fears have not materialized. Activity has slowed sharply in some places, but it has not collapsed. In many economies, it has continued to expand.