NATO 3.0 Is a Dangerous Gamble

Foreign Policy · Rebecca Lissner, Turner Ruggi · 2026-10-21 16:11 UTC

The Trump administration’s plans threaten to undercut both pillars of deterrence at once.

The Trump administration’s plans threaten to undercut both pillars of deterrence at once.

Last week, NATO began its annual Steadfast Noon exercise to ensure the alliance’s nuclear readiness, even as the Trump administration pursues a policy that threatens to undermine it.

Launched in February, NATO 3.0 is the brainchild of Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy. At its core is the assumption that the United States can rapidly wind down its conventional commitments to Europe while retaining its leading role in the alliance, so long as Europe continues to rely on the U.S. nuclear guarantee. Colby presents this shift as a rebalancing of the alliance, enticing European states to take responsibility for the continent’s conventional defense as Washington turns its attention to the Indo-Pacific.

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