How your brain learns to cope with uncertainty

Scientific American · Maia Szalavitz · 2026-10-20 10:00 UTC

Can our “prediction machine” brains learn to handle a world in chaos?

Laura Harrison didn’t want to evacuate. The neuroscientist and mother of two had finally gotten her young children settled into bed after their nighttime ritual. But it was the evening of January 7, 2025, and the skies over her home in Sierra Madre, Calif., glowed a haunting orange-gray. Outside, the Santa Ana winds sent debris swirling with powerful gusts.

In nearby Eaton Canyon a spark had already become a roaring fire. Harrison could see the flames advancing down the mountain, but she hadn’t received evacuation orders. She hesitated. She knew which escape routes were still open, but fleeing at the wrong moment could be catastrophic. She had little information about what choices would give her the best odds of getting out safely. Uncertainty shrouded the city along with the smoke.

But the rapidly worsening conditions convinced her to leave. As Harrison drove her family out, she sent photographs to her colleague Galen Buckwalter, who lived nearby, urging him to flee at once. Buckwalter, a research psychologist, became quadriplegic after a teenage diving accident and uses a wheelchair. That night the van he relies on for mobility was in the shop, and he physically couldn’t get into his wife’s car. He wondered whether he should just shelter in place.

Read the full story at Scientific American · All coverage of this story