Diwali sweet nothings: Like soan papdi, the annual festival stock tip is admired, passed along, and almost nev

The Economic Times · Gaurav Rastogi · 2026-11-05 18:09 UTC

Diwali gifting traditions influence stock market trading strategies and recommendations across various brokerages during the festive season. Many analysts provide stock picks with target prices, which are frequently unattainable in the falling market. A significant number of brokerage reports underperform their benchmarks for prolonged periods of time.

Few objects travel as widely as a box of soan papdi. The flaky, cardamom-infused mithai arrives on Dhanteras and rests on top of the fridge for a decent interval. It then leaves with the next visitor, ribbon intact, seal unbroken. A single box can pass through 4 households before Bhai Dooj without anybody tasting it. Its purpose is social, rather than nutritional, and everyone involved understands this perfectly well.

This Sunday, on Diwali, stock exchanges will open for an hour. Muhurat trading marks the ceremonial start of Samvat 2083, the Hindu accounting year. Days running up to it, business channels will unveil their Diwali picks with the solemnity of a budget speech. Some 20 brokerages will offer 600-odd recommendations, each with a target price and a diya on the cover page.

Last year's lists promised gains on individual stocks of anywhere between 12% and 56%. The market, as it turned out, had other plans. On Muhurat 2025, Sensex closed at 84,426. A Bloomberg consensus reported that week expected 93,512 by end-Oct 2026. On Oct 29, the index stood at 74,151, some 12% below where the year began, and about a fifth short of the forecast. Nifty fell by roughly 11% over the same Samvat. Whatever each pick did on its own merits, all of them were unwrapped into a falling market.

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