Czech National Bank: Neutral new normal – ING

FXStreet · FXStreet Insights Team · 2026-11-06 14:53 UTC

ING economists David Havrlant and Frantisek Taborsky review the Czech National Bank’s 25bp hike to 4%, decided on a narrow 4–3 vote. They highlight stronger inflation and softer growth in the CNB forecast, with 4% seen as a neutral level. The authors expect further hikes to be constrained by weakening economic activity and question the steep rate-cut path embedded in CNB projections.

ING economists David Havrlant and Frantisek Taborsky review the Czech National Bank’s 25bp hike to 4%, decided on a narrow 4–3 vote. They highlight stronger inflation and softer growth in the CNB forecast, with 4% seen as a neutral level. The authors expect further hikes to be constrained by weakening economic activity and question the steep rate-cut path embedded in CNB projections.

CNB hike and policy trajectory

"The CNB proceeded with a rate hike on Thursday, raising the base rate to 4%, which matches the expectations of market participants. The decision was taken in a split vote as four board members favoured a tighter monetary policy setup, while three policymakers opted for rate stability. The situation is perceived as inflationary, with persistently elevated core inflation, weaker exchange rate, and a still strong housing market, along with ample credit growth, seen as the main forces to keep in check through a tighter monetary policy stance."

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